NCAA Regression Discussion

NCAA college football rankings represent, in some sense, a forecast of the relative likelihood of success of the top 25 teams in the country. Please identify the components that likely most influence the voter polls, as well as the actual components that make up the computer-based BCS rankings (you will need to do some research on the BCS system). In your discuss, post the pros and cons of the subjective voter rankings (forecasts) vs. the more objective computer BCS rankings (forecasts). Look up the data from the past few seasons, on how well the initial BCS rankings predicted the big five bowl winners vs. the voter polls that came out in the same week. (Note that there is definite correlation because the voter polls themselves make up part of the BCS formula.)

Before the start of BCS there was no organized system for a selection for Bowl games. Due to the introduction of BCS, the Bowl selection became more open to new teams from all Divisions.

The ranking of BCS consists of the average of different polls with different ranking strategies. These rankings take in to consideration the say of the former coaches and players, media partners and 6 computer based rankings.

Coaches Polls: This ranking is based on the average of the USA Today Coaches Poll.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll: It is calculated on the basis of 114 voters. Each teams poll points are divided on the actual voting points.

Computer Rankings Percentage: This ranking is based on the average of six websites ranking from the internet. These website organizers are:

“Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Dr. Peter Wolfe” (“BCS computer rankings,” Retrieved June 24, 2016.)

This is a complex system and I found it hard to understand it completely.

Pros:

In the BCS system, almost all the matches are crucial to reach to the final. Their rankings are in favor of performing constantly not for a certain period.

BCS system resulted in more attendance at Bowl games than the present playoff system (“College Football – Playoffs Vs. BCS – Procon.Org”)

BCS comprises of 13 weeks which is easy for students to manage with their study schedules.

 

Cons:  

The ranking is based on subjective variables like human and computer poll systems.

If good team loses in the initial rounds due to unforeseen circumstances, the probability of it reaching the final stages is minimal as compared to a playoff system.

In BCS ranking, schools and colleges try to schedule matches against weak teams to benefit from the BCS reward system that favors the teams that have the most undefeated record (“College Football – Playoffs Vs. BCS – Procon.Org”).

 

References:

BCS computer rankings. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4765872

“College Football – Playoffs Vs. BCS – Procon.Org”. Collegefootball.procon.org. N.p., 2016. Web. 24 June 2016.